GDP responses to supply chain disruptions in a post-pandemic era: Combination of DL and ANN outputs based on Google Trends

With the recent Russian-Ukraine conflict, the frequency and intensity of disruptive shocks on major supply chains have risen, causing increasing food and energy security concerns for regulators. That is, the combination of newly available sophisticated deep learning tools with real-time series data may represent a fruitful policy direction because machines can identify patterns without being pre-conditioned calibration thanks to experimental data training. This paper employs Deep Learning (DL) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithms and aimed predicts GDP responses to supply chain disruptions, energy prices, economic policy uncertainty, and google trend in the US. Sampled data from 2008 to 2022 are monthly wrangled and embed different recession episodes connected to the subprime crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and the current economic recession in the US. Both DL and ANN outputs empirically (and unanimously) demonstrated how sensitive monthly GDP variations are to dynamic changes in supply chain performances. Findings identify the substantial role of google trends in delivering a consistent fit to predicted GDP values, which has implications While a comparative discussion over the larger forecasting performance of DL compared to ANN experiments is offered, implications for global policy, decision-makers and firm managers are finally provided. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

Cognitive and psychological consequences of moderate-tosevere COVID-19 pneumonia: associations with clinical variables in convalescent patients without previous comorbidities

Background: Cognitive impairment has been reported in the aftermath of severe acute respiratory syndrome due to coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We investigated the possible association between cognitive impairment and the main clinical and functional variables in a cohort of convalescent COVID-19 patients without premorbid diseases. Method(s): Convalescent COVID-19 patients referring to of a post-acute care facility for pulmonary rehabilitation were consecutively screened for inclusion. All the enrolled patients completed standardized tests to assess cognitive functions, features of psychological distress such as anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and quality of life, and cardiac and pulmonary functional status. Result(s): The 63 enrolled patients (mean age 59.82+/-10.78, male = 47) showed a high rate of clinically relevant depressive symptoms (76.2%) and anxiety (55.5%), and a high prevalence of PTSD (44.4%). About half of the total sample showed reduced cognitive efficiency (44.4%). Most impaired cognitive domains were verbal fluency and longterm spatial memory. The level of cognitive impairment showed a direct correlation with the alteration of blood pressure circadian rhythm (rho=. 410, p=.002) and an inverse association with PaO2 (rho= -.264, p=. 03) and DLCO% values (rho= -.252, p=. 02). Conclusion(s): Our findings indicated a possible association between the reduced cognitive efficiency after COVID-19 and some cardiological and pneumological variables, including some indirect measures of a residual autonomic disorder, such as the presence of an altered BP circadian rhythm.

Evaluation of factors associated with trust in telemedicine in patients with inflammatory bowel disease during COVID-19 pandemic: a multicenter cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: Telemedicine (TM) has had a powerful impact in recent years, particularly on managing chronic diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Knowing patients' expectations and concerns is essential to increase their confidence in this mode of medical care. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We interviewed a large cohort of IBD patients enrolled at two Italian tertiary referral centers to investigate their trust in TM. RESULTS: A total of 376 patients completed the survey and were included in the study: 293 (77.9%) considered TM valuable for managing their disease, and 307 (85%) wanted to have TM service at their center. However, only 99 patients (26.3%) believed that TM guarantees the same level of care as the in-person visit. Among the socio-demographic variables, those independently associated with trust in TM were the higher education qualification (p=0.02) and the level of competence in information and communication technologies (ICT) (p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlighted the importance of equipping IBD patients with basic ICT skills to utilize TM services and increase their confidence in ICT with the help of caregivers. Additionally, to improve the perceived value of TM, it will be helpful to use additional tools such as telemonitoring of disease activity using patients' reported outcomes or remote measurement of fecal calprotectin.

Shedding light on the impact of financial literacy for corporate social responsibility during the COVID-19 crisis: managerial and financial perspectives

Purpose The aim of this paper is to help management scholars and executives learn from the COVID-19 global crisis by analyzing if and how the level of financial literacy affected stakeholders' sensitivity to corporate social responsibility (CSR) issues during the pandemic, as well as identifying whether financial literacy is an important variable to account for in the postpandemic period. The authors test the relationship between objective (measurable) and subjective (self-assessed) financial literacy, as well as financial happiness (i.e. satisfaction with one's current financial situation) with CSR during the pandemic. High levels of financial literacy cause individuals to reward companies that implement CSR strategies and processes. Design/methodology/approach The authors designed an online survey and obtained data on objective and subjective financial literacy, financial happiness and COVID-19 infections, as well as on the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of a representative sample of 1,334 Italian respondents. From a methodological point of view, the authors perform a factor analysis on the CSR-related questions to extract the principal components (PCs) that were used as dependent variables in the regression models to analyze the effects of explanatory variables (financial literacy, financial happiness and COVID-19 infections) and consider the control variables (demographic and socioeconomic characteristics). The authors follow a theoretical approach merging stakeholder theory with CSR. Findings Respondents with a high level of financial literacy and financial happiness are highly sensitive to all CSR components (ethical, philanthropic, economic and legal social responsibilities). Being infected by COVID-19 increased participants' sensitivity to ethical and philanthropic social responsibility (SR), but not to economic and legal SR. The more educated and employed respondents were, the more sensitive they were to CSR, especially compared to their less educated and unemployed counterparts. Research limitations/implications While the sample used is large and representative of the Italian population, Italy is an interesting and useful case to analyze, given that it was the first Western country to be severely hit by COVID-19;since the paper only refers to a specific country scenario, the results cannot be generalized to other countries. A cross-country comparison relating financial literacy and financial happiness to CSR during the COVID-19 pandemic period would be desirable. The research study has theoretical implications for management scholars since the authors show that, during the pandemic period, financial education and financial happiness are relevant in explaining stakeholders' greater sensitivity to CSR issues. The findings may thus help scholars to learn from the COVID-19 period, with the aim of further developing and enhancing stakeholders' theory. Practical implications The research also has practical implications, both for corporate executives and for policymakers, helping them to learn from the COVID-19 global crisis concerning the role of financial literacy and financial happiness on CSR sensitivity and, consequently, how they may consider these important variables in the postpandemic era. On the one hand, executives may improve stakeholders' segmentation and eventually modify CSR policies, considering the higher sensitivity of their stakeholders' due to a higher degree of financial literacy. On the other hand, the findings suggest that policymakers should have a stronger role in supporting employment and education in general and in promoting programs to improve financial literacy to increase stakeholders' sensitivity to CSR, thus further stimulating the inclusion of CSR factors in companies' strategies. Increasing stakeholders' sensitivity to CSR will, in turn, increase the propensity of companies to include SR in their strategies. Thus, increasing financial literacy will have tangible positive effects of increasing CSR. Given the greater role played by companies during the COVID-19 period with respect to societal risk, the findings seem particularly useful. Originality/value To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study represents the first that links financial literacy and financial happiness with CSR during the COVID-19 crisis. The large and representative dataset, as well as the use of specific variables related to financial literacy, financial happiness and COVID-19 infections in the CSR assessment model, makes our analysis original, robust and significant by contributing to the CSR literature and to the financial literacy literature from a methodological point of view, as well as by informing corporate executives and policymakers about the role of financial literacy with regard to CSR during the pandemic, which may help them in learning how to improve their decisions and actions in the postpandemic era.

Acute respiratory tract infections in SARS-CoV-2-negative children during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the early stage of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was a priority;however, influenza viruses and RSV continued to cause seasonal epidemics complicating the diagnostic strategies. In the present study we estimated the proportion of SARS-CoV-2-negative pediatric cases attributed to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza viruses during a 3-month period after the identification of the first COVID-19 case in Greece. Ninety SARS-CoV-2-negative children hospitalized with acute respiratory tract infection were included in the study. Following a SARS-CoV-2 negative result, the samples were tested by molecular methods for detection of RSV and influenza viruses. The positive samples were further tested for identification of the subtype of the viruses. We detected RSV or influenza viruses in 22 (24.4%) samples. Influenza virus was detected in 13 (14.4%) patients (two of type A and 11 of type B), and RSV (all RSV-A) was detected in 9 (10%) patients. In conclusion, a syndromic approach for simultaneous detection of at least influenza virus, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV will be beneficial for the prompt implementation of appropriate hospital management including antiviral treatment and isolation measures.

Evaluation of sample pooling in SARS-CoV-2 testing using the Taq- Path™ COVID-19 Combo Kit

The worldwide spread of SARS-CoV-2 has led to a high demand for COVID-19 molecular testing. However, mass testing is causing heavy laboratory backlogs, reagent shortages and laboratory personnel burnouts. To overcome these difficulties, testing samples in pools has been shown to be an effective strategy for low COVID-19 prevalence regions. In the present study, we evaluated the effectiveness of pooled nasophryngeal specimens testing using the TaqPath COVID-19 Combo Kit. Four confirmed positive samples were tested individualy and also used as positive spike-ins for the pooling protocol. Each one was pooled with four different confirmed negatives to a total of five samples per pool. Five microliters of RNA were used for each reaction, whereas reactions with increased RNA input (10 and 15 ul) were performed to investigate probable effects on sensitivity and assay performance. All samples which were tested either individually or in pools resulted positive. Our results showed that testing in pools of five samples using the TaqPath COVID-19 Combo Kit is a reliable option for SARSCoV- 2 detection, especially when mass testing is urgently needed.

Relating SARS-CoV-2 shedding rate in wastewater to daily positive tests data: A consistent model based approach.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been engaged to complement medical surveillance and in some cases to also act as an early diagnosis indicator of viral spreading in the community. Most efforts worldwide by the scientific community and commercial companies focus on the formulation of protocols for SARS-CoV-2 analysis in wastewater and approaches addressing the quantitative relationship between WBE and medical surveillance are lacking. In the present study, a mathematical model is developed which uses as input the number of daily positive medical tests together with the highly non-linear shedding rate curve of individuals to estimate the evolution of global virus shedding rate in wastewater along calendar days. A comprehensive parametric study by the model using as input actual medical surveillance and WBE data for the city of Thessaloniki (~700,000 inhabitants, North Greece) during the outbreak of November 2020 reveals the conditions under which WBE can be used as an early warning tool for predicting pandemic outbreaks. It is shown that early warning capacity is different along the days of an outbreak and depends strongly on the number of days apart between the day of maximum shedding rate of infected individuals in their disease cycle and the day of their medical testing. The present data indicate for Thessaloniki an average early warning capacity of around 2 days. Moreover, the data imply that there exists a proportion between unreported cases (asymptomatic persons with mild symptoms that do not seek medical advice) and reported cases. The proportion increases with the number of reported cases. The early detection capacity of WBE improves substantially in the presence of an increasing number of unreported cases. For Thessaloniki at the peak of the pandemic in mid-November 2020, the number of unreported cases reached a maximum around 4 times the number of reported cases.

A physicochemical model for rationalizing SARS-CoV-2 concentration in sewage. Case study: The city of Thessaloniki in Greece.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage has been employed by several researchers as an alternative early warning indicator of virus spreading in communities, covering both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. A factor that can seriously mislead the quantitative measurement of viral copies in sewage is the adsorption of virus fragments onto the highly porous solids suspended in wastewater, making them inaccessible. This depends not only on the available amount of suspended solids, but also on the amount of other dissolved chemicals which may influence the capacity of adsorption. On this account, the present work develops a mathematical framework, at various degrees of spatial complexity, of a physicochemical model that rationalizes the quantitative measurements of total virus fragments in sewage as regards the adsorption of virus onto suspended solids and the effect of dissolved chemicals on it. The city of Thessaloniki in Greece is employed as a convenient case study to determine the values of model variables. The present data indicate the ratio of the specific absorption (UV254/DOC) over the dissolved oxygen (DO) as the parameter with the highest correlation with viral copies. This implies a strong effect on viral inaccessibility in sewage caused (i) by the presence of humic-like substances and (ii) by virus decay due to oxidation and metabolic activity of bacteria. The present results suggest days where many fold corrections in the measurement of viral copies should be applied. As a result, although the detected RNA load in June 2020 is similar to that in April 2020, virus shedding in the city is about 5 times lower in June than in April, in line with the very low SARS-CoV-2 incidence and hospital admissions for COVID-19 in Thessaloniki in June.

Gastrointestinal symptoms and digestive comorbidities in an Italian cohort of patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic mainly involves respiratory symptoms, though gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms are increasingly being recognized. In this context, the presence of comorbidities appears to be associated with adverse outcomes. However, the role of digestive manifestations is not yet well defined. The primary aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of GI symptoms and digestive comorbidities in a cohort of patients with COVID-19 compared to controls. The secondary aim was to determine the association of GI-symptoms and digestive comorbidities with clinical outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Inpatients with COVID-19 and controls with similar symptoms and/or radiological findings were enrolled. Symptoms at admission and throughout hospitalization were collected as they were comorbidities. The measured clinical outcomes were mortality, intensive care unit admission and cumulative endpoint. RESULTS: A total of 105 patients were included: 34 with COVID-19 and 71 controls. At admission, the prevalence of GI symptoms among COVID-19 patients was 8.8%. During hospitalization, the frequency of GI symptoms was higher in patients with COVID-19 than in controls (p=0.004). Among patients with COVID-19, the mortality and a cumulative endpoint rates of those with GI symptoms were both lower than for those without GI symptoms (p=0.016 and p=0.000, respectively). Finally, we found digestive comorbidities to be associated with a milder course of COVID-19 (p=0.039 for cumulative endpoint). CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlighted the non-negligible frequency of GI symptoms in patients with COVID-19, partly attributable to the therapies implemented. In addition, the presence of GI symptoms and digestive comorbidities is associated with better outcomes. Most likely, digestive comorbidities do not hinder the host's immune response against SARS-COV-2, and the occurrence of GI symptoms might be linked to a faster reduction of the viral load via the faecal route.

SARS-CoV2 RNA detection in a pancreatic pseudocyst sample.

The involvement of gastrointestinal system in SARS-CoV2 related disease, COVID-19, is increasingly recognized. COVID-19 associated pancreatic injury has been suggested, but its correlation with pancreatic disease is still unclear. In this case report, we describe the detection of SARS-CoV2 RNA in a pancreatic pseudocyst fluid sample collected from a patient with SARS-CoV2 associated pneumonia and a pancreatic pseudocyst developed as a complication of an acute edematous pancreatitis. The detection of SARS-CoV2 within the pancreatic collection arise the question of whether this virus has a tropism for pancreatic tissue and whether it plays a role in pancreatic diseases occurrence.